An Updated Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) for Pakistan

Summary

In this study, an updated probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) of Pakistan region is performed using the procedures developed for the US National Seismic Hazard
Maps and the Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME14). It is based on the combination of conventional area sources model and the spatially smoothed gridded seismicity
model with crustal faults. An updated earthquake catalogue is compiled using several international and national databases. The background seismicity of the study area is modeled
using both the area source zones and the spatially smoothed gridded seismicity approach. A total of 110 crustal fault sources are modeled using their geological slip rates obtained
from the database developed by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM). The Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) is also modeled using a combination of inclined area source zone
and the spatially smoothed seismicity approach. Several Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) developed by the PEER Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) initiative are
employed to estimate the hazard at bedrock level. The logic tree procedure is used to deal with the epistemic uncertainties associated with the source models and the GMPEs. The
updated hazard maps for the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and Spectral Accelerations (SA) at natural periods of 0.2 s, 1 s and 2 s are developed for the 10% and 2% probability
of exceedance in 50 years (DBE and MCE levels, respectively). The hazard curves and Uniform Hazard Spectra (UHS) for several major cities of Pakistan are also presented. The
results provide an updated understanding of the seismic hazard in Pakistan. The presented hazard maps, curves and spectra can be used for the structural design of new buildings as well as the performance assessment of existing buildings. They also provide an improved basis for the policy formulation and planning for effective disaster risk reduction in the
region.

NUST Institute of Civil Engineering (NICE)
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering (SCEE)
National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST)
H-12, Islamabad, Pakistan

Download the Publication in PDF Format

Seismic Hazard Maps of Pakistan

The updated hazard maps developed as part of this study are shown below.

CE - 416: Earthquake Engineering

Description and Rationale

Pakistan is located on a highly earthquake-prone and seismically active part of the world. The country lies on a tectonically active Himalayan orogenic belt developed as a result of slow collision (extended over last 30-40 million years) among the Indian, Arabian, and Eurasian tectonic plates. This geological setting has resulted in a number of active seismic sources and faults in the region which are capable of producing moderate- to large-magnitude earthquakes. Besides having a high level of seismic hazard, the country is also confronted over the years with high rate of population increase and rapid growth of urbanization. With all these challenges and high seismic risk, there is an urgent need of equipping the civil engineering students with state-of-the-art information about seismic hazard, risk and its mitigation. This course aims to develop basic expertise and skill among UG students about various practical aspects of seismic design of buildings and structures.
This course aims to develop basic expertise and skill among UG students about various practical aspects of seismic design of buildings and structures.

Course Contents

1) Introduction to Earthquake Engineering. Understanding the Seismic Hazard: Introduction to Seismology, Seismic Hazard Assessment

2) Introduction to structural dynamics: Equations of motions for SDF Lumped mass system, free vibrations, rigid body assemblages, Response of SDF system to harmonic, periodic and general dynamic loadings, Direct integration solution of SDF systems using time-stepping methods, MDF lumped mass system: shear building, classical modal analysis (Eigen-value analysis), calculation of natural frequencies, time periods and mode shapes of MDF systems

3) Seismic Analysis and Design of Structures: Equivalent static lateral force procedure and Calculation of base shear for given building frame system, Response spectrum analysis of buildings, Time history analysis of buildings, Seismic design of reinforced concrete structures, according to provisions of ACI, UBC/IBC. Detailing of reinforced concrete structures for earthquake resistance as per Code), General seismic design considerations: common mistakes in practice, regularity, lateral force resisting mechanisms and ductility.

4) Term Project: Seismic Design of a Multi-story Building: Use of any FEM software (ETABS 2016 or SAP 2000) for seismic design of structures

Textbooks, References and Reading Material

Textbooks: Lecture notes provided by instructor

Reference Books

1) W. F. Chen and C. Scawthorn (2003), Earthquake Engineering Handbook

2) P. M. Shearer (1999), Introduction to Seismology

3) S. L. Kramer (1996), Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering

4) A. Coburn and R. Spence, (2002), Earthquake protection

5) B. Bolt, Earthquakes

6) C. H. Scholz, The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faultings

7) H. Tiedemann, Earthquake and Volcanic Eruptions: A Handbook on Risk Assessment

8) W. Hays, B. Mohammandioun and J. Mohammadioun, Seismic Zonation

9) T. Pauley and M. J. N. Priestley, Seismic Design of Reinforced Concrete and Masonry Buildings

10) R. W. Clough, and J. Penzien, (1993): Dynamics of Structures, McGraw-Hill, New York, 2nd Edition.

11) A. K. Chopra, (1995): Dynamics of Structures-Theory and Applications to Earthquake Engineering, Prentice Hall, New Jersey.

12) J. W. Smith, (1988): Vibration of Structures: Applications in Civil Engineering Design, Chapman and Hall, London.

13) T. R. Tauchert, (1974): Energy Principles in Structural Mechanics, McGraw-Hill, ISE.

14) H. Bachmann, and W. Ammann, (1987): Vibrations in Structures-Induced by Man and Machines, Series: Structural Engineering Documents. Vol. 3e. International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering (IABSE), Zurich, Switzerland.

15) D. E. Newland, (1993): An Introduction to Random Vibrations, Spectral and Wavelet Analysis, Longman, 3rd Edition, London.

16) S. H. Crandall, and W. D. Mark, (1963): Random Vibration in Mechanical Systems, Academic Press, New York.

International Standards/Guidelines

1) TBI (2010): Guidelines for Performance-Based Seismic Design of Tall Buildings – PEER

2) FEMA 356 (2000): Pre-standard and Commentary for the Seismic Rehabilitation of Buildings

3) ATC-40 (1996) Seismic Evaluation and Retrofit of Concrete Buildings, USA

4) ASCE/SEI 41-13 (2014): Seismic Rehabilitation of Existing Buildings (ASCE/SEI 41-13)

5) Council on Tall Buildings and Urban-Habitat (2008): Recommendations for the Seismic Design of High-Rise Buildings.

6) PEER/ATC-72-1 (2011): Modeling and Acceptance Criteria for Tall Buildings, USA

7) ASCE 7-16 (2017): Minimum Design Loads and Associated Criteria for Buildings and Other Structures (ASCE/SEI 7-16)

Research Journals:

1) Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics, Wiley

2) Engineering Structures, Elsevier

3) The Structural Design of Tall and Special Buildings

4) Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, Elsevier

5) Journal of Structural Engineering, ASCE

6) ACI Structural Journal, ACI

7) Structural Engineering International Journal, IABSE

8) Magazine of Concrete Research, ICE

Internet Resources

Useful Websites

1) http://peer.berkeley.edu/

2) https://www.fema.gov/

3) www.ctbuh.org

4) www.structuralengineering.info

5) https://earthquake.usgs.gov/

6) http://www.iris.edu/hq/

7) http://ds.iris.edu/ieb/

Major Ground Motion Databases

1) USGS Earthquake Catalog: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/

2) PEER Ground Motion Database: https://ngawest2.berkeley.edu/site

3) British Geological Survey Database: http://quakes.bgs.ac.uk/

4) COSMOS Ground Motion Data Center: http://www.cosmos-eq.org/

5) K-NET and KiK-net, the NIED Strong-motion Seismograph Network Database: http://www.kyoshin.bosai.go.jp/

Magazines/Articles

http://www.structuremag.org/

https://www.istructe.org

http://ctbuh-korea.org/ijhrb/index.php

https://www.express.pk/story/968021/

http://www.technologyreview.pk/the-science-of-earthquakes/

http://www.technologyreview.pk/12-years-october-earthquake-pakistan-prepared-handle-another-big-one/

Some Useful Video Playlists

1) Nonlinear Modeling and PERFORM 3D Seminar by Graham H. Powell

Description: Four valuable sessions on nonlinear modeling of structural components + Hands-on training sessions PERFORM 3D.

Link: Click Here

2) Title: “PBD Seminar and Workshop” – AIT Solutions (Youtube Channel)

Description: International Seminar and Workshop on Performance Based Design of Reinforced Concrete Buildings – 27-28 August 2013 – Hosted by the Asian Center for Engineering Computations and Software (ACECOMS) in collaboration with AIT Consulting.

Link: Click Here

3) Computers and Structures, Inc. (Youtube Channel)

Description: CSI Watch and Learn Video Tutorials

Link: Click Here

ETABS: Click Here

PERFORM 3D: Click Here

4) International Seminar on Design of Tall Buildings – November 2016 (Bangkok)

Description: Hands-on training sessions of different finite element modeling and analysis software (SAP, ETABS, SAFE and PERFORM 3D)

Day 1 (Training on Other CSI Software):

Link: Click Here

Day 2 (Training on PERFORM 3D):

Link: Click Here

5) Lecture Series on Performance Based Design: State of Practice for Tall Buildings

Description: A full playlist (presentations) from the 2014 Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI) Technical Seminar Series – “Performance Based Design: State of Practice for Tall Buildings”.

Link: Click Here

6) Talk and Group Panel Discussion on Performance-based Design

Description: Special Talk on PBD by Mr. Ron Klemencic at the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), Thailand, November 2017.

Link: Click Here

7) Ashraf Habibullah Talks

Description: CSI founder and CEO Ashraf Habibullah talks during a one-day seminar titled “The theory and practice of Performance-Based Design: The Future of Earthquake Engineering.”

Links:

i. The 4 performance levels in PBD

ii. Nonlinear analysis and energy dissipation

iii. Animations in structural engineering

iv. Strength and deformation of tall structures

v. The Advantage of a Ritz Analysis over an Eigen Analysis in Dynamics

vi. The Power of Virtual Work in Deflection Control of Structures

vii. Optimization in Design of Large Steel Structures

8) IRIS Earthquake Science (Youtube Channel)

Description: Official YouTube channel of Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology

Link: https://www.youtube.com/user/IRISEnO

Grading Scheme

Assignments + Quizzes: 20%

OHT Exams: 30%

Term Project: 10%

End Semester Exam: 50%

Total: 100%

Instructor

Dr. Fawad Ahmed Najam
Assistant Professor (Structural Engineering)
NUST Institute of Civil Engineering (NICE)
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering (SCEE)
National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST)
H-12 Islamabad, Pakistan
Cell: 92-334-5192533, Email: fawad@nice.nust.edu.pk
Office No: 118, 1st Floor, NIT Building, SCEE, NUST

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